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The Ashes could provide one cause for celebration, but this series will also see the Aussie side host more birthday parties than an arcade in the 90s. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day before the team was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Ageing Squad Interest Builds

For a couple of years there has been growing fascination with the age of this side and especially the bowling unit. It is unusual to have almost every player in a Test team being over 30, except for young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a problem: a Test team featuring a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Younger bowlers have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Change Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the core four plus Boland have continued performing. Any team knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of simultaneous departures, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a train that would indeed be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, transition is upon them, imposed on this Aussie team in the space of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only miss the opening match, was the team management view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the balance experiences a much more significant shift with two players missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the side. Boland handling the new ball is nothing new in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Test matches entering the attack after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Debutant Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

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Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is notable is how rapidly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what further injuries the opening match may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for Brisbane, and able to continue after that match, given how complicated stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of going down early in series and a pattern of minor injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Outlook Unclear

The latter part of the contest may see the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might experience transition beginning much earlier than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a great day-night Brisbane option, but after that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this level is no place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all opportunity for the visiting team. You can sense that train a-coming, rolling round the bend, and England hasn't seen the success since they don’t know when.