Foreign Office Advised Regarding Military Action to Topple Robert Mugabe

Recently released papers show that the UK's diplomatic corps cautioned against British military action to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Show Deliberations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who declined to leave office as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.

Following Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and building an international agreement for change was not working, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the files included:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment dismissed military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military involvement would result in significant losses and have "considerable implications" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we assess that no nation in Africa would support any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document adds: "We also believe that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We must devise a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".

Robert Mugabe was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.