NFL Postseason Scenarios: Key Deciders & Outcomes for the Final Week.
As we head into the last weekend of the NFL regular season, just two play-off spots remain open. However, far more is on the line, such as the highly desired top seeds in both conferences and four divisional crowns.
NFL schedulers have produced a dramatic finale, with the final two postseason places on the line in a pair of head-to-head matchups.
NFL Postseason Picture as of Week 18
American Football Conference Rankings
- Denver Broncos (13-3)
- New England Patriots (13-3)
- Jacksonville (12-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) / Baltimore (8-8)
- Houston (11-5)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5)
- Buffalo (11-5)
The winner of the Pittsburgh-Baltimore game will secure the fourth seed and a home-field advantage in the wildcard round. Meanwhile, Buffalo and Los Angeles are locked in as wildcard teams.
The Texans require a victory and a Jacksonville defeat to jump from the fifth seed to third. The Broncos will earn the top seed with a win, but a setback could open the door for the Patriots or the Jaguars to claim it.
National Football Conference Rankings
- Seattle (13-3)
- Chicago Bears (11-5)
- Philadelphia (11-5)
- Carolina Panthers (8-8) / Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
- San Francisco (12-4)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-5)
- Green Bay (9-6)
The NFC South will be claimed by the victor of the Panthers-Buccaneers game, granting them the fourth seed. Notably, the Panthers could still win the divisional title even with a defeat, depending on other results.
Green Bay are set at the seventh spot. The marquee matchup, though, is the battle for the #1 seed in the NFC between Seattle and San Francisco, with a week off and home playoff games hanging in the balance.
Understanding the NFL Play-Off Format
The top seed in each conference receives a valuable first-round bye and home games for the duration of the play-offs.
During Wildcard Weekend, the other six qualified teams face off: the second seed hosts the #7 team, #3 plays #6, and fourth hosts fifth.
For the Divisional Round, the #1 seeds enter the competition, facing the lowest surviving team. The AFC and NFC title games are then hosted by the best remaining team, highlighting the immense importance of securing that top spot.
Win or Go Home in the AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens (01:20, Monday)
This fierce grudge match reaches its climax in the final game of the regular season. The divisional title and a postseason spot on the line, this is a true win-or-go-home situation.
Pittsburgh have been up and down this season, while the Ravens struggled early but are still in the hunt. Key injuries may prove critical: Pittsburgh may miss key target DK Metcalf, while Baltimore's quarterback their MVP QB is a doubt with a health issue.
Running back Derrick Henry might emerge as the x-factor for the Ravens in what promises to be a physical, defensive struggle.
NFC West Showdown for the Top Seed
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (01:00, Sunday)
Not only the NFC West is on the line when Seattle travels to the 49ers. The victorious team claims the NFC's top seed and the road to the Super Bowl that comes with it.
This matchup features an high-powered San Francisco attack against a stingy Seattle defense. With QB their young passer returned, San Francisco have been the league's highest scorers. On the other hand, the Seahawks' unit is ranked among the best in the league.
Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold needs to cut down on costly turnovers that have haunted him this season. Whoever wins this clash gains a huge edge for the playoff run.
The NFC South's Uncertain Finish
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30 Saturday)
Neither team comes into this game with strong form. Tampa Bay have dropped four straight, while Carolina have missed chances to clinch the division.
For Carolina it's simple: a victory gets them in. For Tampa Bay, the situation is more complex. Even with a win, they need another result from the Atlanta-New Orleans matchup to claim the division crown.
Three-Way Fight for AFC Supremacy
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (18:00, Sunday)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25, Sunday)
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (21:25, Sunday)
Denver control their destiny for the AFC's top seed. A victory over a Chargers team expected to sit starters gets it done.
Should Denver falter, the opportunity arises for the New England Patriots. A Patriots win coupled with a Denver defeat would give the #1 ranking to Bill Belichick's team.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the long shot. They need a win and losses by the Broncos and Patriots to pull off an unlikely ascent to #1. More pressingly, a Jacksonville defeat could allow them to be overtaken by the Houston Texans in the division standings.
Full Slate of Final Week Games
Saturday, 3 January
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (21:30)
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (01:00, Sunday)
Sunday, 4 January
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (18:00)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals (18:00)
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (18:00)
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (18:00)
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (18:00)
Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (18:00)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (21:25)
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (21:25)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (21:25)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos (21:25)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders (21:25)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (21:25)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (21:25)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (01:20, Monday)
