🔗 Share this article

The last time Vladimir Putin visited India four years ago, the international order was markedly different. That short trip, curtailed by the global health crisis, centered around talks on economic and military ties between the two nations.

Months later, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine would turn the Russian leader into a global pariah, significantly restricting his overseas engagements.

Furthermore, that period preceded a major change in US-India relations, marked by inflammatory rhetoric and the introduction of substantial import duties.

"Against this backdrop, the importance of Putin's journey to meet Modi cannot be overstated, serving as a symbol of resilient relations and a rejection of external pressure," analysts note.

A Pivotal Moment for Two Major Powers

The high-level meeting takes place at a crucial time. President Putin arrives after rejecting recent diplomatic initiatives for Ukraine, bolstered by reported gains by Russian forces.

"For Russia, the primary importance of this visit is its very occurrence," stated a prominent analyst based in Moscow. "It indicates a return to a form of normal international relations."

From Delhi's standpoint, the stakes are even higher. The country navigates a difficult international environment, characterized by a semi-isolationist United States, a diminished Russia, and an increasingly powerful China.

This delicate balance was highlighted just before the visit, when senior Western diplomats published a joint opinion piece questioning Russia's commitment to peace. This elicited a firm response from Indian officials, who labeled it an inappropriate interference.

'China Remains the Greatest Threat'

The India-Russia bond dates back to the Cold War era and remains firmly rooted, with Moscow long being Delhi's primary defense supplier. This relationship was largely tolerated by the West until a change in approach.

Over time, Western nations ignored India's substantial purchases of cheap energy from Russia. Yet, recently stalled diplomacy, pressure mounted, leading to punitive tariffs and a major chill in US-India ties.

"Consequently, India has returned to its default strategy of maintaining multiple options," noted a strategic analyst. "It signals to the US that it has alternatives and is waiting to see how the global dynamics settle."

Beyond international politics, India's core motivation with Russia is geography. "Beijing remains the greatest threat to India, and historically, India has relied on Russia as a continental balancer against China," the analyst added.

The strengthening partnership between Russia and China has raised alarms in Delhi, prompting efforts to prevent an unbreakable bond between its northern neighbor and its longtime partner.

This concern has also spurred India's drive to reduce its defense procurement, decreasing its dependence on Russian equipment from about 70% to under 40% in the past few years.

"Delhi will try to strike a balance: purchase enough Russian weaponry to maintain the alliance, but avoid so dependent that a supply disruption would leave it vulnerable," the analyst concluded.

The Oil Question

Enhanced economic cooperation is expected to be a key agenda item. The Russian leader has recently stressed plans to elevate cooperation with India to a "higher plane", in spite of Western sanctions.

The matter of energy imports is central. Although the Indian government has stated to keep buying Russian oil, recent restrictions have dampened activity from the private sector. Simultaneously, India has moved to increase imports of US energy.

A Kremlin spokesperson acknowledged "obstacles" in energy trade but insisted it would continue without major disruption. The official minimized the effect of sanctions, stating they would cause only "minor" and "brief" disruptions and that Russia possesses the "technology" to circumvent them.

Limited Leverage on Ukraine

As talks proceed, the topic of Ukraine is likely to be addressed primarily through India's consistent appeal for a peaceful resolution.

"While the Indian leader can speak to all parties, the nation does not possess the necessary leverage to significantly influence the war," the analyst said. "Beyond encouraging talks, its ability to make a difference is limited."

Ultimately, despite the public displays of camaraderie between the two leaders, the partnership is fundamentally one of "pragmatic strategic interest," guided by national interest in a volatile world.